Some forecasts of the diffusion of e-assessment using a model

This article concerns the use of e-assessment in General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) qualifications in England. It explains why the diffusion of e-assessment merits study. It reviews approaches to forecasting the diffusion of e-assessment in GCSEs and justifies the choice of an aggregate diffusion model (the Bass model) for this purpose. The article discusses approaches to the parameterisation of the Bass model and proposes three sets of parameters for the model. The three disparate forecasts of e-assessment diffusion result. The most accurate of the three forecasts will become clearer as more data of e-assessment adoption are collected. The article suggests extensions and generalisations to the core Bass model, which may provide an enhanced understanding of e-assessment adoption for GCSEs. It is informative to think about e-assessment diffusion with reference to schools' decisions to adopt the new technology. First, forecasts should be made, using the core model, and then possible extensions should be proposed. Importing ideas from marketing research into the sphere of exams and qualifications is a useful example of how work from the wider social sciences can inform assessment research. Diffusion forecasting could have a role in understanding other qualifications and examinations issues.